2025 Dec: Market News and 2026 Forecsts

Hello from the CoughlinTeam and the Vancouver Real Estate Investment Group

Bill here, bringing you the REAL Market Forecast for 2026.

🌦️ What’s Ahead for 2026?

The biggest question today:
Are prices going up 5%… or will they slide 15% more?

🎥 New VMR Market Forecast Video

Watch my full VMR December 2025 Market Report, with both:

• The positive forecast — why the market could go up 5% in 2026
• The negative forecast — why the market could go down 15% in 2026

This year marks the slowest real estate market in 43 years, and the key to understanding the future is the STR — the Sell-Through Rate: how many homes sell out of every 100 for sale?

We need 10–15% STR to be stable.

Right now across the Lower Mainland:

• Vancouver STR: 6–9%
• Fraser Valley STR: 8–9%
• Record Strong City: North Vancouver with a 17% Sell-Through Rate
• Record Slowest City: West Surrey at 5% STR — meaning 95% of homes did NOT sell

Home prices in many cities, like Abbotsford, are down about 30% from the peak. This is a very different market than last year.

📉 What 2025 Has Taught Us

2025 Reality:

• STR levels remain far below normal
• Prices continue to slide $10,000–$20,000 per month in many cities
• Nearly 22,000 Realtors are chasing under 500 house sales per month
• Inventory stays near record highs, and sales remain very low

🇨🇦 Canada’s 2025 Economic Journey

Inflation

Inflation has come down from 2024, but government deficits, carbon taxes, and tariffs keep costs stubbornly high.

Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada cut the Overnight Rate by 0.75% in 2025, but mortgage rates have not fallen very much.

Today’s Rates:

• Prime Rate: 6.50–6.75%
• 5-Year Fixed Mortgages: 4.0–5.39%

These rates are far higher than what many buyers were stress-tested for.

⚠️ Trade Pressures — A Growing Threat

China and U.S. tariffs are hitting Canada hard.
Factories are slowing down, some are closing, and others are moving production south. This puts pressure on jobs and directly impacts housing demand.

🏦 Banks Are Tightening Lending

This year, lending conditions changed quickly:

• Banks fear another 10–15% drop in home prices
• Construction lending has almost stopped
• Many homeowners cannot refinance, even with strong income

This tightening is pushing some sellers toward forced sales, which adds downward pressure.

🔑 STR — Your Key Market Predictor

As I teach every month on VMR:
The Sell-Through Rate lets you see the market 30–60 days ahead.

The Simple Rule:

• 15% STR → Stable market
• Below 10% STR → Prices fall $10,000–$20,000 per month
• Above 20% STR → Prices rise $10,000–$20,000 per month

We are well below the stability zone.

🟦 Forecast for 2026 — Up +5% or Down −15%

Based on today’s pressures:

• Job losses
• High immigration + high unemployment
• Slow interest-rate cuts
• Tight bank lending
• Tariff pressure from the U.S. & China

I forecast the market will respond to government action — or inaction.

But there ARE opportunities. Homes that didn’t sell in the last 6–12 months have sharpened their prices, and investors are finding excellent cash-flow deals — the best since the 1980s.

📌 What This Means for You, %%

If You’re Buying

• Real deals are available
• Cash-Flowing Condos: First time in 35 years: condos renting for MORE than the mortgage payment — paying off an entire mortgage in 9.5 years.
  Example: a $260,000 condo rents for $2,100/month.
  With 50% financing ($130,000 mortgage) at a 3.75% variable rate, payments are about $666.32 + taxes/strata (~$550) — meaning the rent pays off the mortgage in 9.5 years.
• Motivated sellers
• Strong negotiation power

If You’re Selling

It’s all relative — prices are falling, but so are the prices of what you are buying.

Correct pricing is essential.

My VMR marketing system — STR exposure, narrated movies, and Vancouver all-cash buyers — still creates multiple offers. I actually perform best in slow markets because extra service creates the advantage.

Our clients are winning because we provide:

• Massive exposure to cash buyers through Vancouver Market Reports (17.3M views, 99.4% accuracy)
• Professionally narrated movies selling the Dream of “Why We Love Living Here”
• A perfected Auction Marketing System creating bidding wars and top-of-market prices

If You’re Investing

Condos in Abbotsford and the Fraser Valley are now cash-flow positive, paying off mortgages in under **10 years** — the best investor opportunity in decades.

📉 Inventory Still High

• Many listings from the past year did not sell
• Sellers are adjusting
• Buyers are watching STR closely every week

This is the first “normal planning market” we've had in years — no foreign-capital surges, no COVID disruptions, no bidding-war frenzy. Just real data and real opportunities.

🌟 Final Word from Bill

2026 is a year of strategy, not panic.

If you want clarity — whether buying, selling, refinancing, or investing — call or text me anytime.

I’m here to help you read the market — and win.